INTRODUCTION Following are reports on the status of the Russian efforts toward planetary defense. The information has been communicated by Vadim Simonenko and Anatoly Zaitsev of the Russian Federal Nuclear Center at Snezhinsk (Chelyabinsk-70). It is primarily the results of three meetings of the Space Protection of the Earth conference, the most recent of which was held in September 2000. Also included in the material below is a rather confused report taken from Moscow News, together with commentary from Simonenko. In all countries we have had to deal at some time or another with such distorted and sensationalized media reporting of the NEO impact hazard. -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- INTERNATIONAL CONFERENCE ON SPACE PROTECTION OF THE EARTH EVPATORIA, UKRAIN, 11-15 SEPTEMBER 2000 Memorandum of the Conference, supplied by Vadim A. Simonenko During the last decades, many studies have shown that at this stage of solar system evolution, considerable danger still exists from close encounters of Earth with minor space bodies: asteroids, comets and their fragments. Impacts from such bodies could cause local, regional or global catastrophes. Global catastrophes occur once every 100,000 to one million years; these are the most dangerous, with consequences ranging from degradation of the human race to its total elimination. Regional events, such as tsunamis caused by falls of large bodies into the oceans, have higher frequencies (1 every 10,000-100,000 years); they may cause the death of up to hundreds of millions of people and huge economical losses. Even local events, like the Tunguska explosion, may represent a severe threat. Such an event occurring over a large city causes the death of several million people and an economic loss comparable with the gross national product of some industrialized countries. These events occur about once every 100-300 years. For the first time in history, we have reached a sufficiently high level of technology to cope with the danger, by finding the hazardous objects in space and by adopting measures able to prevent space impacts. The unanswered question is whether we, as a global society, are ready and willing to provide the resources necessary to preserve our safety, or whether we will postpone such a decision until the next disaster actually happens. The inventory of dangerous objects is far from complete. Large asteroids with sizes greater than 1 km pose the greatest threat and are mostly visible from ground; in the last years their discovery rate has increased thanks to the efforts of researchers in the USA, but an international program must be put in place to monitor and study them. It is believed that about 50% of the population of largest objects has been discovered; this is expected to reach 90% completeness by 2010. However, it is desirable to implement an extended, international program for their physical characterization, including possible space reconnaissance missions. The gathering of all necessary information will give the opportunity to make appropriate decisions about the methods and technologies we might use to prevent the largest impacts. The situation is more complex with regard to smaller objects. The number of medium-size objects (between 100 meters and 1 km) is evaluated to be around 100,000-200,000 and it is difficult, if not impossible, to catalogue them all using current technology. In order to prevent impacts from such objects another strategy should be used. We should identify those objects that are on a collision course with the Earth and mitigation technology should neutralize them when they approach the Earth within several million kilometers or less. To provide reliable and timely discovery of such objects it is necessary to have network of two or more ground-based middle-size large-field telescopes and one or two space-based ones. Ground-based radio locators could provide precise trajectory measurements. It is also important to develop exploratory missions for such objects to study their physical properties. The missions would represent the prototypes of future technological means for impact mitigation. The participants to the Conference recommend to the Science Academies of Russia and Ukraine, the Russian and Ukrainian Space Agencies, the Russian Ministries for Atomic Energy, and for Extreme Situations to plan a national program of investigation into the hazards posed by impacts and develop systems for their mitigation. The Conference also recommends that international efforts be coordinated along the aforementioned research lines, and international programs be created to discover, monitor, and explore these dangerous objects, in order to develop an impact prediction, mitigation strategies and technology. -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- RUSSIAN SCIENTISTS WARN OF WORLD-ENDING ASTEROID THREAT From The Moscow Times, 16 December 2000 By Kevin O'Flynn Russian scientists warned this week that life as we know it could end as early as Monday, if any one of the massive asteroids whizzing through the cosmos should happen to be making a beeline for Earth. "There is a threat to humanity," said Vadim Simonenko, deputy head of the Institute of Technical Physics. Simonenko was among the impressive array of experts attending a news conference with a title straight from a 1950s B- movie: "Asteroid Danger: How to Save the Earth From Cosmic Catastrophe." The conference, held Thursday at the House of Journalists, brought together astronomers, physicists and nuclear experts to urge global cooperation in saving the world from a devastating asteroid collision that could leave millions dead or even wipe out civilization entirely. With asteroids measuring up to 10 kilometers in diameter and traveling at speeds of up to 20,000 kilometers an hour, Earth would stand little chance if it was hit by a big one. The Thursday gathering, including Simonenko, whose institute is a part of the Russian Nuclear Center, called for the organization of a world body to scour space for incoming objects and destroy any potentially dangerous flying objects with nuclear missiles. In the case that preemptive measures fail, the citizens of the world should be prepared to relocate to the moon, the scientists added. "After a collision with one of these asteroids, there'll be only fragments left of Earth," said Alexander Bagrov, senior scientist at the Institute of Astronomy. Bagrov added that current technology allows experts to detect incoming objects no earlier than three days ahead of time hence the suggestion that the day of reckoning may come as early as Monday. Bagrov, a tall, thin balding man with a moonlike face, led the rallying cry of the doom-mongers, telling grim tales of other planets done in by asteroids. Five billion years ago, he said, the planet Phaeton, located between Mars and Jupiter, the area where the orbit of most asteroids lie, exploded into millions of bits after being hit by an asteroid 1,000 meters wide. "And [Phaeton] was many times bigger than Earth," Bagrov warned. "After a collision with one of these asteroids there'd by only fragments left of Earth." The asteroid that destroyed Phaeton also went on to cause the demise of life on Mars, when one of the fragments of the shattered planet whacked into Mars, causing it to sink into a grim nuclear winter that killed all life forms and turned it the bright red color it is today. The only trace of life left on Mars is a "face with tears on its cheek" visible on the planet's surface, Bragov said. Comets and asteroids have been slamming into Earth since time began. A huge asteroid that hit the planet 65 million years ago is believed to have killed off the dinosaurs. But it has only been in the last 10 to 20 years that scientists have started to seriously consider the threat that asteroids, comets and other so-called NEOs, or Near Earth Objects, potentially pose to contemporary civilization. "Ten years ago it was thought fantastic," Simonenko said of the concept that life on Earth could be wiped out by a NEO hit. Everything changed, however, when an American scientist proved that a huge crater in the state of Arizona was caused by a meteorite and not, as previously thought, by volcanic activity. Scientists now agree that there are millions of asteroids out there that have a chance of hitting the Earth. If an object of more than 10 kilometers in diameter hits the Earth then there's not much chance of anyone surviving, according to a British task force that earlier this year published research on NEOs. Luckily, the chance of that happening is about once every hundred million years, the research said. More dangerous are smaller objects of one kilometer or more which could destroy cities, change the climate and cause huge tidal waves all over the Earth. There are roughly 1,000 such asteroids, roughly half of which have been identified as unlikely to strike the Earth. An ongoing project at NASA hopes to identify an additional 40 percent of the asteroids within the next decade. Even smaller objects, those under a kilometer, would still cause devastation equivalent to a number of nuclear bombs, but few of these have been detected. Russia has already been hit by two large asteroids in the last 100 years. In 1908 an asteroid crashed into Tunguska, a remote area of Siberia, causing devastation across an area the size of London. Nearly 40 years later another asteroid hit Sikote-Alin, also in Siberia, smashing more than a hundred craters into the land. If one of these asteroids had hit a city then millions of people would have died. Alone, Russia has little funding to devote to NEO studies. According to Anatoly Zaitsev, the head engineer at the Scientific Production Association, a manufacturer of satellites, an international body is needed to track all flying objects and act quickly with nuclear missiles if needed. Zaitsev said that there is also a need to discuss the practical and moral problems associated with NEO vigilance. Do you really want to tell the citizens of Perm that a meteorite is headed for their town square, he wondered, pointing to the rash of suicides and general panic caused two years ago in the United States when the Hale-Bopp comet came unusually close to Earth. If the big one does come, Zaitsev added, people should be prepared to evacuate the planet - potentially relocating to the moon. But how will we choose who goes, someone asked. "Ah, that's the problem," Zaitsev said. Copyright 2000, The Moscow Times -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- SOME COMMENTS FROM THE SPACE SHIELD FOUNDATION ON THE "MOSCOW NEWS" STORY From Vadim A. Simonenko originally sent to Benny Peiser for the CCNet distribution The Moscow press conference was convened on initiative of Russian popular magazine Khimia I Zhyzn' (Chemistry and Life) in the wake of the SPE-2000, which was held at Emporia last September. Their representative attended the Conference. However there were no representatives of central Russian media. So, it was proposed to have some meeting with media in Moscow. For me, the main goal of this press conference was to extend some education among media representatives. Frankly saying, I did not meet even a single correct thought among those, which were cited as mine. In particular, I told about 2000 NEAs of 1 km but found in information just half of them. Yes, I've mentioned 1000, but saying that they should be discovered. There are even more exaggerated distortions of thoughts of my colleagues. Nobody told about Sikhe-Alyn event as of million-people-loss potential one, but it was written... My opinion, we should be patient and have many meetings with our media to educate them and make them professionals in NEA area. We have very limited opportunity to work on the problems of Space Protection of the Earth as we realize them. We cannot have in this country so extended observational program as in the US. However, our astronomers have some programs (not only follow-up, but it is also very important). And we are trying to help them. Unfortunately, there is extremely low state support for such program in this country now. At the same time we have some unique experience in space mission programs, in understanding impact events and in impact mitigation technologies. I cannot realize why it irritates some people. In particular, many peculiarities (a lot of rocks on the surface, square craters, grows), which were mentioned as strange for NEAR Eros data, are just simple consequences of impact mechanics, which are well known for our specialists. I guess, if we have better opportunities for communications there would be benefit for both Russian and Western scientists. We are interested in SPE technology development. We are working in this area as professionals. This problem is much more complicated than non-specialists think usually. Unfortunately non-specialists write more often and easier that professionals. Even if there were a ten year warning time for rather the simple case of a 1 km asteroid, it is very short time to provide acceptable and reliable mitigation program. But what can be done if the threaten object will be a comet even with several years warning time? Nothing now. However there are technical opportunities (not too complicated) but they should be studied and developed. We have a completely different attitude in this country to the impacts of Tunguska class bodies. We regard that they should be watched and neutralized on their last way. For the current world such an impact happens once per one or two centuries and will be an awful event. So, it is necessary to develop short-time-observation ability and an alert system (more probably with space-based telescopes and radio telescopes). It is necessary to develop the space ready-for-interception system with means of dispersion of similar small bodies. Such system will not be too simple, but it is still affordable now, and it will be reliable and efficient 10-20 years later. There is no direct governmental support for this kind of research in Russia. There is some very small non-direct support. In particular, SPE-2000 was supported partly (25%) by Minatom. However, there are no official objections against such studies. So, we have rather extended group of skilled specialists who work on different aspects in the extended area of SPE. We try to develop some efficient mechanisms for co ordination of our efforts. In particular, it is the mission of Space Shield Foundation. I guess that there is similar activity in the US and European countries may be with more efficient governmental support. I hope that the efforts can be and will be combined. I have some personal experience. Shortly it sounds like this: All the wrong that can happen will happen. The worst things you can imagine are not too wrong if you are prepared to them. When Nature sends the challenge it gives the way to solve it. Better to start now than to delay to the last day. Even not being used for the purpose the good job can be used for the benefit of people (in the NEA case for civilian colonization of the space). And the last point. While I meet really difficult problem I am trying to solve it from the end. Usually it helps to find the best way for the solution of the whole problem. We need to protect civilization (some part of it or in whole). It is worth the effort. And the price of such protection is not too high but the price of neglect is much higher. So, we should work for the protection of the Earth and People. There is also an extremely valuable set-off for such a program. It helps people to develop mutual understanding and respect, to join their efforts facing challenging problems. Vadim Simonenko -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- DEVELOPMENT OF THE PLANETARY DEFENSE SYSTEM (1996) By Anatoly V. Zaitsev Report of International Conference "SPACE PROTECTION OF THE EARTH - 96" ("SPE-96") September 23-27, 1996 Russian Federal Nuclear Center All-Russian Research Institute of Technical Physics Snezhinsk (Chelyabinsk-70) Russia, 141400 INTRODUCTION Between a diversity of dangers, menacing to existence of a mankind, the possible consequences of impacts of asteroids and comets with the Earth are considered recently by a sufficiently serious manner. It became evidently, that a collision with an object few kilometers of size could result destruction, in fact, of all lives on our planet [1¸3]. However, a threat can be provided not only by large-scale objects, a probability of collision with which is sufficiently low, but also relatively small objects of the Tunguska meteorite type. This is due to the current abundance of the Earth with potentially dangerous technogenous objects. It refers to nuclear objects, chemical plants, toxic wastes storehouses, etc. Destruction of any of them in the case of the asteroid impact can result not only the human victims and hardware damages, but also became as a peculiar "trigger" for development of the ecological crisis or nuclear conflict. Increased understanding of degree of the danger of such developments and their effect on the stable mankind development provides a necessity to take measures in order to avoid such catastrophes or decrease damages from them. Their necessity is confirmed by recently conducted studies and analyses which showed, that the contemporary level of the technological development of the word leading countries allows to proceed to creation of the Planetary Defense System (PDS) aimed against the meteor and asteroid danger [4¸9]. Meanwhile, where are quite, and it is necessary to recognize, well-proven thoughts, that the PDS could be used not only for the mankind rescue, but also as a mean for destruction of entire countries and regions [10]. Whole our historical experience argues that this is quite possible. Perhaps it is impossible to find neither technical human hands creature, which was not harmful for him. Moreover, the scales of possible disasters in the case of the PDS use for military purposes could not be compared with those we have had in the past. Taking into account particularities of above anxieties, this paper contains an attempts to reveal some of potentially hazardous problems and consequences of the PDS development. Moreover, the main reason, according to which a main emphasis is laid mainly on the analysis of the negative occurrences, is a necessity to develop measures with the aim of their non-admission. A number of possible scenarios was developed with this goal. Some of them could be seemed as unreal or even absurd, referred to the fields, which touched may be only by fantasist. Nevertheless, such approach allows more clearly reveal the node problems of the PDS development, formulate its maximum rigorous requirements and development measures for their execution. At last it will allow to provide the maximum reliability and efficiency of the PDS as well as to remove or as much as possible to reduce a possibility of negative consequences of its development and use. ANALYSIS OF CERTAIN PROBLEMS OF THE PDS DEVELOPMENT At present the permanently operating service of the small celestial bodies observation and tracking does not exists yet. Nevertheless, many of observatories in the word perform such observations. So, thanks to a progress, reached in the fields of the observation instruments development, data recording and processing we can wait in the nearest future the sharp increase of the number of asteroids and comets, approaching to the Earth orbit and intersecting it. Then, any object, moving to the Earth along the impact trajectory, can be detected at any moment. Sizes of this object can be from tens and hundreds meters to few kilometers. In the first case a catastrophe of the regional scale can threat us, in the second one - the global catastrophe can happen on the Earth. It is obvious, that in the case of the in time warning on the danger, the word community will take all possible measures in order to prevent the catastrophe or reduce its possible damages. However, a probability of the favorable for us outcome of events will depend on the many factors combination, such as, for instance, trajectory parameters and other characteristics of the threatening object, which provides us with the time margin, necessary for organization of countermeasures, availability of sufficient number of the corresponding technical means, etc. Between a great number of factors, on which our destiny will depends, the time factor is the most important. Clearly, that first of the most important conditions, providing efficiency of taken measures, is in time, without any delay warning on a danger. In order to meet this requirement, it is necessary to provide not only immediacy of data delivery, but also exclude any, even the most little possible reasons, which can results data delaying, and, the more so, their loss or hide. All reasons of this can be conditionally divided into following two categories: technical and non-technical ones. Technical reasons consist of different malfunctions and failures in the communication systems due to both internal errors and external factors. They combine the disaster relief and other natural phenomena, such as, for instance, powerful solar flares, resulting malfunctions of the communication systems and computer networks. Non-technical reasons in a considerable degree are due to the so-called "human factor". Only a man can intentionally or unintentionally delay, or even hide the information. It can be due to the negligence or, on the contrary, due to the excessive sense of responsibility. For example, a wish can arise to re-verify acquired data. With that a possibility can't be excluded to loss the valuable time to be spent to take necessary specific measures. We can't exclude numerous other cases, for instance an intentional hide of data due to psychical and other illness, on the religious or some other motifs. Simultaneous coincidence of many unfavorable circumstances is possible as well. Such assumption may seem as unreal or absurd. But we know a great number of examples, when due to different fortuities, including these through a man error, great tragedies and catastrophes took place. So, in the situations, when a destiny of mankind or some of its part is to be decided, such fortuities shall be excluded or minimized. By this reason, prior the PDS creation, it is seems as necessary to develop and accept, on the international level, a number of measures, providing operational warning, as well as those excluding or minimizing a probability of delay, loss or hide of data on the dangerous celestial bodies. It will be necessary to develop also a warning procedure and define a number of persons and organizations, which must receive the necessary information and in which sequence. Moreover, it will be necessary to think over procedure of the Earth population or some individual countries warning as well. Basing on above considerations, the first of the most important requirements of the future PDS: along with reliable detection of the dangerous objects the Ground/Space-Based Service of Observations (GSBSO) of the PDS, providing a guaranteed in time delivery of the acquired data to the concerning persons and agencies. Evidently, in order to meet this requirement, it will be reasonable to use an experience gained by a number of means of military destination: services of control of the open space, warning on the rocket attack, etc. For instance, the data acquired by the observational means could be delivered to the centre of control of the open space (CCOS), and then directly delivered to authorities of these and other countries. For this purpose at the initial phase of the GSBSO deployment the Russian CCOS of the Ministry of Defense and identical to it the US NORAD Centre could be used. It is obvious, that in parallel to or after the CCOS the data on detected celestial bodies shall be delivered to the astronomy and other science organisations. Moreover, it is important to provide guaranteed delivery of data to authorities of states, on which territory, as per forecasting, the relatively small asteroid should fall. This is necessary in order to exclude a temptation to damage or even distract these countries by not announcing on a danger. In fact, it is necessary to note that an accurate prediction of the impact point is hardly to provide due to its great spread because of bad knowledge of the falling object's parameters, particularly aerodynamic ones [11]. Meanwhile, in some time development of the observational means will contribute to execution of such prediction. So, it is necessary to take all measures to exclude a possibility of hide, in some reasons, data on dangerous asteroids. Preliminary studies show that this requirement will be fulfilled more simply and reliably with development of the GSBSO space segment. In this case it will be relatively easy to provide an independent reception of data from the space-borne observational means by ground-based reception stations in different regions of the terrestrial globe. By the way, this is a weighty argument in favor of development of space-borne observation means. Besides of mentioned above, there is also a number of reasons to hide data on asteroids, for instance for their utilization in future for the military purpose or as a source of raw material resources. During process of the celestial objects observation, such relatively small objects can be detected, that, at corresponding correction of their orbits, could be used to strike territories of different countries. As it was discussed above, in the nearest future such operation could be fulfilled. And it is not obligatory to use the PDS means for this purpose. It will be sufficient to study well the characteristics of the celestial body during execution of usual space missions and then to push it, using any known method, to the Earth impact trajectory, For this aim, in some favorable cases, it may be appear, that it is sufficient to use even the Spacecraft (S/C) propulsion system, or the impulse of this S/C collision with the asteroid. In perspective the "Space Billiards" method [12] could be used, that will allow to change the trajectory of sufficiently great body due to the process of consecutive collisions with smaller objects. So, a possibility can not be excluded to use the S/C, including those of a science destination, as a mean for deflection of asteroids in order to distract targets on the Earth. Apparently, in order to exclude such actions, it will be necessary to accept certain restrictions on some active operations in missions of the interplanetary S/C to small celestial bodies. Correspondingly, similar restrictions must be imposed on rocket/space means of the PDS, that will allow to fulfill a requirement of impossibility of its military use. In order to meet this constraint, the available great experience of the international control of arms could be used, that will provide a confidence in a possibility of solution of this problem. It is necessary also to take into account the fact, that at present asteroids are studied in the quality of sources of the raw materials for our future generation. So that a temptation can appear to hide data on asteroids, potentially suitable for this purpose, in order, for example, to monopolize the property rights of these resources. To avoid such situation, it is necessary to establish procedures, regulating problems of investigation and utilization of these bodies resources. Discussed above problems of the data provision, have one important aspect. The question is, that after receiving of data on the potential danger, together with necessity to take effective measures to prevent a catastrophe, a dilemma will inevitably arise before the states authorities: is it necessary to notify the Earth population about this fact or not? This problem is represented as more complicated, then that of operational warning of competent persons and agencies, which, in higher degree has the organizational/technical character. But an "announcement dilemma" touches an enormous complex of moral, ethic, religious and other problems, discussion of which is far outside of the framework of this paper and author's competence. May be it would be more reasonable, after corresponding studying of this problem by experts and its wide public discussion, to accept an international law or code of reglamentations for these critical situations, if, certainly, these documents were not developed yet. They will have to regulate behavior of all persons, touching this problem: from the first discoverer to state authorities, coming to a decision on a danger removing and population warning. Certainly, at the PDS development it will be necessary to solve a variety of more individual, but not less important problems, then those discussed above. Particularly, it will require to increase the number of allowable azimuths of launch of the launch vehicles, using for launching of means of interception of dangerous celestial bodies, to provide the launch safety of launch and using of the nuclear means of destruction, to remove or minimize a possibility of damage by fragments of the destroyed object, etc. However restricted limits of this paper do not allow to carry out even simplified analysis of these problems. POSSIBLE CONSEQUENCES OF THE PDS DEVELOPMENT In the case of accepting of effective measures, one can hope, that problems of guaranteed provision of data and no using of the PDS in the military purposes can be solved. Nevertheless, not at the phase of the PDS development and deployment, but and after it, a number of extremely complicated problems can arise, if measures for their prevention will not be undertaken in advance. The essence of one of them is the fact, that a possibility can't be excluded, that for some reasons, the PPS "owner", can refuse from its using for protection of some state or group of states. That is, a wish can arise to use this situation to exert a pressure to these countries in order to change a Geopolitical situation, etc., or even to destroy them. A refuse can be expressed both in the evident and implicit form. In the first case it can be motivated, for instance, by a fact, that there is a danger, that the fragments of the destroyed celestial body could reach territories of states, which would not be suffered, if the PPS is not under use. In the second case, for instance, a feign of malfunction of the intercepting devices, miss at interception, etc. can be used. Data hiding is also possible, that it was discussed above. Hence, one more requirement to the PDS is as follows: guaranteed defense of any country. It is becomes clear from above examples, that ensuing of the PDS in the critic situation can provide not lower threat, than its direct using with the military purpose. So, excluding the dilemma: to use or not to use the PDS means of defense, can appear as one of the most important and, may be the most complicated problem, associated with the Earth protection against the asteroid danger. Solution of "dilemma of the PDS ensuing" will require development of wide set of measures, and it is possible, that the first of such measures can be adoption of the international treaty, forbidding development and monopoly possession with the PDS by one state or group of states, united in single military/political block or identical to it. It seems, that one of the most acceptable options of this dilemma solution could be development of the PDS simultaneously in Russia and USA, which have, in fact, all necessary basic means or their prototypes for development of such system. In this case the combined GSBSO and autonomous interception services could be created. Development of the combined GSBSO, which could include the observation facilities of other countries, would allow to provide execution of the first its requirement: guaranteed operational delivery of the acquired data to corresponding authorities and agencies, as well as to exclude a possibility of data hide. At the same time, creation of the autonomous interception services on the basis of the national rocket/space, nuclear and other means of Russia and USA would allow to eliminate or considerably reduce risk of the PDS ensuing. Moreover, it would even increase the PPS reliability due to the functioning of means, based on different principles and by some other reasons as well. It is obvious, that an "ensuing dilemma" can arise only in the case of collision with the relatively small asteroid. In the case of the global catastrophe the Humanity will combine its efforts for struggle against a common danger. However, the mankind's capacities on warding off of the threat from the Space will never be unlimited. A situation can be, when we will not evade from the global catastrophe. Perhaps, in this case the single alternative to general destruction could be an option of using of the lunar base for saving of small colony of terrestrial people. After decay of the catastrophic events on the Earth, they could come back and again populate the Earth. Thus, numerous arguments in favor of the space programs development, including the Moon colonization, can be added by one more: as margin the mankind must have the "Noah's Ark - 2". It is necessary to note, that not only a possibility of perish of whole mankind, but also and its part compel us to reflect on a possibility to keep some minimum of spiritual and material valuables, which would allow to regenerate and restore losses at any possible catastrophes of the regional and global scale. With this aim it would require to develop and execute a special program, which could be named as "Phoenix", including a wide range of measures of fulfillment of such objective. Apropos, may be some kind things were in history, that could explain an extremely high level of development of some of ancient civilizations. The analysis, performed in this work concerning some negative of scenarios of possible events, has no for its aim to force a horror around the asteroid danger problem or to find guilty of somebody in evil intentions. As it was discussed at the beginning of paper, it was done with the objective to formulate more well-proven requirements, imposed on the PDS. Fulfillment of these requirements will allow to exclude a possibility of realization of all considered (and more and more number of not considered) negative options of the events development, leaving them for using as scenarios in the science fictions, movies, etc. CONCLUSION Results of the executed analysis of possible problems and consequences of the PDS development allow to formulate a number of the most important general requirements which the PPS shall satisfy. Besides the obvious requirement of non-admission of the PDS use with a military purpose, the PDS shall satisfy, at least, to two more the most important requirements: guaranteed in time warning on a danger, as well as to guarantee the defense of any country against this danger. It is clear, that during the PDS development, deployment and operation it will be necessary also to satisfy to numerous partial constraints, including those mentioned in this paper. In order to meet some of them in the nearest future, it would be reasonable to take the following measures on the international level: 1. To take measures excluding possibilities of the loss, delay or hide of the data both on threatening celestial bodies, and those, which represent an interest as row materials resources. 2. To develop a procedure of warning as well as to define a number of persons and agencies, to which the data shall be delivered and in which sequence. 3. To adopt the code of rules of behavior for persons, receiving the data on a danger, as well as the warning procedure for the Earth population. 4. To initiate an issue concerning creation of the international lunar base and to develop procedures, allowing regenerate or restore possible losses as a result of catastrophes of the regional or global scale. 5. To restrict active experiments with small celestial bodies. In order to exclude a possibly of the monopoly possession by the PDS, it seems as reasonable to accept an international agreement on non-deployment of the PDS by one or few countries, united in single military/political block. Undoubtedly, the more detailed study of problems, concerning protection against the asteroid and cometary danger, will allow to reveal more numerous other problems of the most various character. But even from above list is becomes clear, that the PDS deployment will put for the mankind a number of essentially non-ordinary problems, each of them may be not only from the point of view of the science/engineering, but also from points of view of organization, politics, law, moral, ethics, etc. Possibility of their solution has no doubts. Nevertheless, this will require to combine efforts of a great number of experts in the field not only of the natural sciences, but also and humanity sciences. As a result, works on the PDS development can became as a peculiar catalyst of development for many industries and technologies, as it was at development of such great projects, as for instance, space ones, that will favor not only the defense, but also development and unity of the Humanity. -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- REFERENCES 1. Smith Joseph V. - Protection of the human race against natural hazards (asteroids, comets, volcanoes, earthquakes// Geology, v. 13, p. 675-678, Oct. 1985. 2. The Spaceguard Survey: Report of the NASA International Near-Earth-Object Detection Workshop// Edited by D. Morrison. JPL/CIT, Pasadena, CA, Jan. 25, 1992. 3. Gehrels T. - Collisions with Comets and Asteroids// Scientific American, p.54-59, March, 1996. 4. Zaitsev A. 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