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18 September 2000
In January 2000 the UK Minister
for Science, Lord Sainsbury, announced the setting
up of a Task Force on Potentially Hazardous Near
Earth Objects (NEOs). He invited the Task Force
to make proposals to the Government on how the
United Kingdom should best contribute to international
effort on Near-Earth Objects; and specifically
to:
a. confirm the nature of the hazard
and the potential level
of risks;
b. identify the current UK contribution
to international
efforts;
c. advise HMG on what further action
to take in the light
of a. and b. above and on the communication of
issues to
the public.
The Task Force was chaired by Dr
Harry Atkinson, formerly of the Science and Engineering
Research Council (SERC) and past Chairman of the
European Space Agency's Council. Sir Crispin Tickell,
British diplomat, and Professor David Williams,
immediate past President of the Royal Astronomical
Society, completed the team.
Enormous numbers of asteroids and
comets orbit the Sun. Only a tiny fraction of
them follow paths that bring them near the Earth.
These Near Earth Objects range in size from pebbles
to mountains, and travel at high speeds.
Such objects have collided with
the Earth since its formation, and brought the
carbon and water which made life possible. They
have also caused widespread changes in the Earth's
surface, and occasional extinctions of such living
organisms as the dinosaurs. The threat has only
recently been recognised and accepted.This has
come about through advances in telescope technology
allowing the study of these usually faint objects,
the identification of craters on the moon, other
planets and the Earth as a result of impacts,
and the dramatic collision of pieces of the comet
Shoemaker-Levy 9 with Jupiter in 1994.
Impacts represent a significant
risk to human and other forms of life. Means now
exist to mitigate the consequences of such impacts
for the human species.
The largest uncertainty in risk
analysis arises from our incomplete knowledge
of asteroids whose orbits bring them near to the
Earth.With greater information about them, fairly
accurate predictions can be made. The risk from
comets is between 10 and 30 per cent of that from
asteroids.The advance warning period for a potential
impact from a long period comet may be as short
as a year compared to decades or centuries for
asteroids. Short period comets can be considered
along with asteroids.
The threat from Near Earth Objects
raises major issues, among them the inadequacy
of current knowledge, confirmation of hazard after
initial observation, disaster management (if the
worst came to the worst), methods of mitigation
including deflection, and reliable communication
with the public. The Task Force believes that
steps should be taken at government level to set
in place appropriate bodies - international, European
including national - where these issues can be
discussed and decisions taken.The United Kingdom
is well placed to make a significant contribution
to what should be a global effort.
The recommendations of the Task
Force are given with supporting arguments in Chapter
9.
Recommendations 1 to 9 cover the
United Kingdom's scientific role within an international
effort and Recommendations 10 to 14 the coordination
of all aspects of the subject internationally,
in Europe and in Britain.
Recommendation 1 -- We recommend
that the Government should seek partners, preferably
in Europe, to build in the southern hemisphere
an advanced new 3 metre-class survey telescope
for surveying substantially smaller objects than
those now systematically observed by other telescopes.
The telescope should be dedicated to work on Near
Earth Objects and be located on an appropriate
site.
Recommendation 2 -- We recommend
that arrangements be made for observational data
obtained for other purposes by wide-field facilities,
such as the new British VISTA telescope, to be
searched for Near Earth Objects on a nightly basis.
Recommendation 3 -- We recommend
that the Government draw the attention of the
European Space Agency to the particular role that
GAIA, one of its future missions, could play in
surveying the sky for Near Earth Objects. The
potential in GAIA, and in other space missions
such as NASA's SIRTF and the European Space Agency's
BepiColombo, for Near Earth Object research should
be considered as a factor in defining the missions
and in scheduling their completion.
Recommendation 4 -- We recommend
that the 1 metre Johannes Kapteyn Telescope on
La Palma, in which the United Kingdom is a partner,
be dedicated to follow-up observations of Near
Earth Objects.
Recommendation 5 -- We recommend
that negotiations take place with the partners
with whom the United Kingdom shares suitable telescopes
to establish an arrangement for small amounts
of time to be provided under appropriate financial
terms for spectroscopic follow-up of Near Earth
Objects.
Recommendation 6 -- We recommend
that the Government explore, with like-minded
countries, the case for mounting a number of coordinated
space rendezvous missions based on relatively
inexpensive microsatellites, each to visit a different
type of Near Earth Object to establish its detailed
characteristics.
Recommendation 7 -- We recommend
that the Government ˆ together with other
governments, the International Astronomical Union
and other interested parties seek ways of putting
the governance and funding of the Minor Planet
Center on a robust international footing, including
the Center's links to executive agencies if a
potential threat were found.
Recommendation 8 -- We recommend
that the Government should help promote multi-disciplinary
studies of the consequences of impacts from Near
Earth Objects on the Earth in British and European
institutions concerned, including the Research
Councils, universities and the European Science
Foundation.
Recommendation 9 -- We recommend
that the Government, with other governments, set
in hand studies to look into the practical possibilities
of mitigating the results of impact and deflecting
incoming objects.
Recommendation 10
We recommend that the Government
urgently seek with other governments and international
bodies (in particular the International Astronomical
Union) to establish a forum for open discussion
of the scientific aspects of Near Earth Objects,
and a forum for international action. Preferably
these should be brought together in an international
body. It might have some analogy with the Intergovernmental
Panel on Climate Change, thereby covering science,
impacts, and mitigation.
Recommendation 11 -- We recommend
that the Government discuss with like-minded European
governments how Europe could best contribute to
international efforts to cope with Near Earth
Objects, coordinate activities in Europe, and
work towards becoming a partner with the United
States, with complementary roles in specific areas.
We recommend that the European Space Agency and
the European Southern Observatory, with the European
Union and the European Science Foundation, work
out a strategy for this purpose in time for discussion
at the ministerial meeting of the European Space
Agency in 2001.
Recommendation 12 -- We recommend
that the Government appoint a single department
to take the lead for coordination and conduct
of policy on Near Earth Objects, supported by
the necessary inter-departmental machinery.
Recommendation 13 -- We recommend
that a British Centre for Near Earth Objects be
set up whose mission would be to promote and coordinate
work on the subject in Britain; to provide an
advisory service to the Government, other relevant
authorities, the public and the media, and to
facilitate British involvement in international
activities. In doing so it would call on the Research
Councils involved, in particular the Particle
Physics and Astronomy Research Council and the
Natural Environment Research Council, and on universities,
observatories and other bodies concerned in Britain.
Recommendation 14 -- We recommend
that one of the most important functions of a
British Centre for Near Earth Objects be to provide
a public service which would give balanced information
in clear, direct and comprehensible language as
need might arise. Such a service must respond
to very different audiences: on the one hand Parliament,
the general public and the media; and on the other
the academic, scientific and environmental communities.
In all of this, full use should be made of the
Internet. As a first step, the Task Force recommends
that a feasibility study be established to determine
the functions, terms of reference and funding
for such a Centre.
A copy of the full report and further
information on NEOs can be found on http://www.nearearthobjects.co.uk
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